Silver Review

Silver also fell yesterday along with gold. The immediate delivery future at the COMEX settled 1.67% below prior closing

 The dollar index slid 0.09% despite a better jobless claims data. A rebounded equity market might have made people to shift some money from the refuge to riskier stocks

The US and European equities made a comeback yesterday while Asian equities closed in red

The I-share silver holdings slid a bit to 9890.74 tons from 10010.45 as on 9th Aug

OUTLOOK:

Silver at the Globex platform is quoting up by $0.176 at $38.84. As discussed in Gold’s outlook. Concern over the Euro area’s debt is keeping the Euro under stress. Dilemma to ban short selling while implementing measures to reduce the nation’s budget deficit may make the Euro little volatile for the day. The dollar index is at a stronger note after the equities rebound and lesser jobless data yesterday. It is gaining on anticipation of reports may show a rise in advance retail sales with business inventories to grow a slower pace. However the Euro zone’s industrial production may stall which might impact upon the metal adversely. But support from the global equities again may push the metal up. Overall, silver’s volatility is likely to make the metal swing between gains and losses.

GOLD MARKET

Gold futures fell for the first time of the week paring the best weekly advance as higher margins on future contracts encouraged sales after the metal rose to cross the $1800 milestone. The immediate delivery future at the COMEX settled 1.84% lower than the prior

 The dollar index slid 0.09% despite a better jobless claims data. A rebounded equity market might have made people to shift some money from the refuge to riskier stocks

 The US and European equities made a comeback yesterday while Asian equities closed in red

 Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold backed exchange-traded  fund slid a bit to 1272.89 tons from 1296.51 tons as on 11th Aug after some sell offs have been seen as an effect of raising margin in futures

 The gold-silver ratio slid a bit to 45.25 from 45.33

OUTLOOK

After a brief correction in effect of raising initial and maintenance margin by the CME, gold at the Globex platform is seen to rebound and is quoting up by $10.70, at $1760.50. France, Spain, Italy and Belgium will be banning short selling from today to stabilize the market, that is, they are to protect bets on price falls. Equities rebounded nicely as an unexpected drop in the US jobless claims might have boosted confidence and the dollar is therefore showing the strength against the majors. Asian equities are taking cues there on as reports suggest that things are not as dire as market has feared. Italy seeks to ease labor market laws, sell local services and possibly raise the capital gains tax to eliminate the budget deficit and secure ECB’s support for its bonds after Italian borrowing costs reached the Euro area’s high last week. This might have kept the Euro under pressure along with anticipation on likely report for a stalling expansion in industrial production. From the economic data front, Michigan confidence is still expected to be weaker while an expected upswing in retail sales during summer months could point to a soft patch as consumers are still willing to spend and hence business inventories are also likely to increase at a slower pace. The above analysis shows that there is a blend of impact from the Europe. One side it is Euro nations to protect price fall while Italy’s strive to reduce budget deficit may make the Euro pretty volatile. US releases being expected to be positive, it is therefore likely that gold will remain strong in the Asian hours while it may take little correction in the evening. So, it is recommended to remain short at higher prices for the metal.

Silver slashed heavily by 3.80% at the COMEX yesterday on the brink of Federal Reserve’s meeting which kept the interest rate unchanged to bolster the economy. The global industrial usage might have hampered which led the metal to retreat amid global uncertainties for a slowing economy.

 The dollar index settled 1.17% lower from the prior closing as the Fed maintained the lower interest rate for an extended period

The Before the Fed meeting started, Asian equities slumped heavily. US and European stocks followed the same at early trades but recovered nicely after the policy statement came, raising the hope for another round of monetary easing

The I-share silver holdings  remained unchanged at10010.45 tons from 9858.92 tons as on 5th Aug

OUTLOOK:

Silver at the Globex platform is quoting up by $0.467 at $38.35. As discussed in Gold’s outlook, the Asian equities are reviving nicely after the Fed  painted a much gloomier picture of the economy and indicated it would keep cash cheap and easy for at least two more years. The dollar index rebound but is not likely to maintain the initial gain as the US monthly budget in the evening is expected to widen the deficits due to lower tax income from the lowering personal income. The bounce back of equities will be supporting silver to trade high while the rupee appreciation might limit the upside. Also, keeping the rate unchanged by the Fed is basically to bolster the economy and therefore manufacturing, industrial companies might raise the productivity slowly, thereby will be supportive for the metal. On an intraday basis, a likely weak dollar index in the evening, US budget deficit and anticipation of a fore coming monetary easing might lead people to take positions early at this present low prices. Hence silver might remain strong for the day.

Gold futures advanced for a third straight day after Federal Reserve seeks to bolster the economy by keeping the interest rate unchanged. Amid global equities slump and concern for a slowing economy, gold ticked new high of $1780.90. At the COMEX the immediate delivery future settled 1.74% higher than the prior

 The dollar index  settled  1.17% lower from the prior closing as the Fed maintained the lower interest rate for an extended period

 Before the Fed meeting started, Asian equities slumped heavily. US and European stocks followed the same at early trades but recovered nicely after the policy statement came, raising the hope for another round of monetary easing

 Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest goldbacked exchange-traded  fund remained unchanged at  1309.92 tons as on 8th Aug

 The gold-silver  ratio improved to 45.96 from 43.46 till yesterday as gold surpassed silver’s performance

OUTLOOK

At the Globex platform gold is seen quoting up by $14.70, at $1756.10. The US and European stocks rallied the most in recent past,  reviving from the hefty slump after the Federal Reserve vowed to keep the interest rate near zero. The Fed also discussed a range of policy tools to bolster the economy and raised speculation of a third round quantitative easing through bond purchases. The dollar index rose as a pledge by the Fed to keep the key rate at a record low till 2013 failed to calm concern that the global growth is slowing. The Asian equities also rebounded taking the cues from US and Europe and are trading at a green at present. From the economic data front, the US monthly budget will be announced which is expected to widen its deficit as the government would not have able to raise the tax income to that extent due to a fall in personal income. This might make the dollar weak. So, cheaper money is likely to bid the metal higher for the day. The rupee depreciation by half a percent yesterday prompted Indian gold to settle at a premium to the parity price, which is likely to appreciate today. So, the metal’s upside would be limited although a gap up opening is expected. In the early Asian hours gold is therefore likely to remain stable while in the evening, anticipation of an increasing US deficit budget might lift the metal at a faster pace.

Silver with tandem to Gold soared but is struggling to break the life high as the metal is related to equities and a global slump is retraining the metal to have a fierce upside. The immediate delivery future at the COMEX closed by gaining 3.06%

 The dollar index  settled 0.37% higher from the prior closing

The global equities plunged heavily with DJIA, FTSE all were settled by losing five to seven percent

The I-share silver holdings  remained unchanged at10010.45 tons from 9858.92 tons as on 5th Aug

OUTLOOK:

Silver at the Globex platform is quoting little down by $0.175. As discussed in Gold’s outlook, silver’s volatility is increasing due to the global cues from shattering equities and financial turmoil. This added with slumping global manufacturing and industrial productions are making the metal swing between gains and losses. At present the Asian equities are at a hefty amount of loss with the dollar index at a weaker note. The Fed will be holding a meeting today as the unprecedented down grade for the US top credit rating fueled speculation that USA is heading for another economic slowdown. The Indian rupee at present is depreciated by 40 paisa which will be having immense support for the metal to grow. From the economic data front, US nonfarm productivity might be reduced while the UK manufacturing and industrial production may also stall. This may however put a little downside pressure on the metal. So, silver is expected to have a wide range bound movement with bias towards an upside.

Gold extended its rally to a record second day as the global slump in equities and crude oil deepened concern on economic slowdown which worsen further after S&P downgraded the US credit rating. The immediate delivery future was settled by gaining 3.72% at $1711.60

 The dollar index  settled  0.37% higher from the prior closing

 World equities plunged heavily with DJIA, FTSE all were settled by losing five to seven percent

 Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest goldbacked exchange-traded  fund increased to 1309.92 tons from 1286.29 tons as on 8th Aug

 The gold-silver  ratio improved to 43.46 from 43.18 till yesterday

OUTLOOK

The yellow metal is on a winning spree amid global anxieties as the equities and crude oil continued to face the mayhem. At present, at the Globex platform Gold is ticking another new high of $1750, $38.40 up from the prior level. The weak dollar index (-0.22%) is supporting the metal to soar along with worries about global financial turmoil, which might have kept investors to stick in to the refuge. The Asian stocks fell for the sixth straight day on worsening global outlook and after data showed Chinese inflation accelerated restraining the government from easing monetary policy. Kospi Index, NIKKEI, Hangseng all are bleeding at present with a loss to anywhere between five to eight percent. The Fed will be holding a meeting today as the unprecedented down grade for the US top credit rating fueled speculation that USA is heading for another economic slowdown. The Indian rupee at present is depreciated by 40 paisa which will be having immense support for the metal to grow. From the economic data front, US nonfarm productivity might be reduced while the UK manufacturing and industrial production may also stall. So, an expected slowing global economy will be keep pushing the metal to an upside. Hence it is recommended to be long for the metal

SILVER MARKET

Silver futures shaken yesterday by 5.57% after the global equities extended their losses by a hefty margin. A buoyed stock market plunged heavily on absence of any sign to a further monetary easing. A strong dollar index also quickens the fall.

 The dollar index  gained more than one and a half percent after Japan sold its currency and the Euro sank as the ECB provided cash to the banks amid debt concern

The global equities extended a hefty slump driving the S&P 500 index to the biggest decline since February 2009, while Europe also plunged by more than 3%

The I-share silver holdings remained unchanged at 9824.93 tons as on 2nd Aug

OUTLOOK:

At the Globex platform silver is seen quoting down by $0.086, at $39.345. As discussed in Gold’s outlook, Asian equities plunged heavily taking cues from the US and European equities as fears about the economic growth raised ahead of key jobs data in US. The dollar index after gaining more than 1.5% yesterday, is paring the gain at present due to the same concern. However, payrolls may add more jobs after the unemployment rose to 9.2%, which might provide the dollar some support to revive in the evening. So, there is a possibility that silver may take another correction with due consideration to the payroll data and reviving dollar index. Hence a range bound move in silver can be expected.

Gold Market

Gold futures took correction from a new all time high of $1683.50 to settle at 1657.50, 0.44% down from the prior. After the debt ceiling was raised, it was the QE2 which has buoyed the stock market till date, after which the thrust came in absence of any sign for a further round of monetary easing.

 The dollar index gained more than one and a half percent after Japan sold its currency and the Euro sank as the ECB provided cash to the banks amid debt concern

 The global equities extended a hefty slump driving the S&P 500 index to the biggest decline since February 2009, while Europe also plunged by more than 3%

 The ECB yesterday failed to halt a rout in Italy and Spain might have led the Euro to retreat heavily against the dollar

 Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest goldbacked exchange-traded  fund remained unchanged at 1286.29 tons

 The gold-silver ratio dropped to 42.03 from 39.87 after silver fell by 5.57%

OUTLOOK:

At the Globex platform gold is seen quoting down by $6.80, at $1652.20. Asian stocks nosedived taking cues from the global tumult as fears about economic growth concern raised ahead of key economic report on US jobs. This also has kept the dollar index under stress which is at present is down by 0.246%. There is speculation that the CME could raise the margin requirements on a 100 ounce contract like it did with silver after the metal skyrocketed. This means the traders need to put up more money to buy a gold future contract so the result is that a lot of investors are forced to sell, which decreases volatility in the long run. Over the short term, however, it can get ugly as traders exit their positions. From the economic data front, it is the US payrolls data which are due to release in the evening, are expected to add private jobs after the unemployment rose to 9.2%. Investors might have booked the profit to cover losses elsewhere in equities along with the expected jobs data could have prompted the price correction. But, looking at the economic conditions, bullishness still holds good. Overall, gold may remain strong for the day although possibility of a further correction ahead of the crucial data can’t be neglected.

Gold Review

Gold futures  dropped yesterday from record on optimism that the US congress will pass a compromise bill to raise the US debt limit to stave off the default. Gold future for October delivery made a low of $1608.10 although it revived nicely to settle 0.58% below prior closing at $1620.40.

 The dollar index gained over half a percent at settlement as the US clinched the debt deal at the very last moment, just one day prior to the deadline of Aug.2

 The Asian equities closed at a positive note on confidence that the US regulators will take definite step to tame the default. US and Europe stocks however pared the initial gains after reports showed slump in manufacturing indexes

 Manufacturing indexes from the US to Europe and China declined in July raising the concern that the global recovery is losing momentum

 Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest goldbacked exchange-traded fund  remained unchanged at 1263.57 tons as on 1st Aug

 The gold-silver ratio improved to 41.22 from 40.63

OUTLOOK:

At the Globex platform gold is seen quoting up by $1.30 at $1621.70. The House of Representatives approved legislation to raise the US debt limit by at least $2.1 trillion and cut federal spending by $2.4 trillion or more, just one day before the deadline. The plan goes to the Senate for a final vote today. The

US deal offered  breather but downgrade looms as the rating agencies threatened and anticipating so, the dollar index is showing weakness. The Asian equities are trading at a downside on slowing manufacturing growth aver the globe. Coming to the economic data front, the US personal income might see a reduction while UK PMI construction may also slid a bit. Dollar therefore might see some pressure in the evening. Since the ceiling has been raised and US for a shorter while is out of danger, precious metals are likely to feel the heat and is expected to retreat a bit. Although the rupee depreciation might push the metal to grow at the Indian context, a slide can’t be over looked.

SILVER REVIEW

Silver got a hit yesterday on optimism of the US debt talks. The immediate delivery future retreated by 1.91% at the COMEX

 The dollar index settled with marginal gain before a planned briefing by Obama administration officials on the stalemate in raising the US debt limit that is needed to avert a default

The global equities remained submissive yesterday and settled all most all at a negative side. The ambiguity over the US debt ceiling might led the investors to remain calm for investing in riskier assets, except FTSE all other renowned exchanges fell

The I-share silver holdings remained unchanged at 9915.86 tons as on 27th July

OUTLOOK:

At the Globex platform silver is seen quoting up by $0.006, at $39.80. As discussed in Gold’s outlook, the Asian equities are mostly trading at a downside as the US debt ceiling talks stalled yesterday and were being postponed for today. The vote is likely to take place at 6 pm Washington time. The dollar index at present is at a stronger note on optimism for the US lawmakers to find at least a provisional solution for the debt ceiling. However, the US releases are not likely to support the dollar today as reports might come up with a lower GDP and reduced consumption. Overall, silver also is likely to have a range bound movement today, tending towards downside. It is the debt limit talks which are creating the market jittery. So, silver is likely to have a range bound move for the day